Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x69f0…1121 sports 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$21 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%175W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$21
other 19% −$8
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% +$4
politics 0% −$3
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤30d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤90d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 100% +15.7%
all 277 +5.7% -4.4% 63% 58% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 58% -10.4%
10% -13.5% 49% -19.0%
15% -21.9% 38% -26.8%
20% -29.6% 30% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses175 / 102
Open positions5
Markets (closed)277 / 282
History coverage235d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$10 +55%
Bulls vs. Suns: O/U 224.5 Mar 06 $2 +$1 +49%
Lightning vs. Jets Mar 06 $4 $0 +4%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 05 $2 $0 +2%
Islanders vs. Ducks Mar 05 $2 $0 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21? Mar 05 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $3 +$1 +33%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Feb 19 $3 +$1 +35%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Feb 19 $4 +$1 +27%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $4 +$2 +56%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Feb 19 $6 +$1 +18%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Feb 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $2 +$2 +92%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Mavericks vs. Suns Feb 17 $6 +$2 +35%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? Feb 10 $4 +$1 +37%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? Feb 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-09? Feb 10 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $15 +$7 +45%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-04? Feb 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04? Feb 05 $3 +$3 +89%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Davidson Wildcats Feb 04 $5 $0 +4%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Penguins vs. Flames Jan 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jan 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 16 $2 +$1 +61%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Baez Jan 16 $4 $0 -5%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $2 +$2 +108%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 04 $2 +$1 +61%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Dec 26 $2 +$1 +72%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Dec 26 $2 +$3 +150%
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5 Dec 26 $3 +$2 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 Dec 26 $3 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 27h
Bulls vs. Suns BUY Suns 55¢ $2 107d
Bulls vs. Suns: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 107d
Lightning vs. Jets BUY Jets 96¢ $4 107d
Islanders vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 89¢ $2 108d
Hawks vs. Bucks BUY Hawks 98¢ $2 108d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 120d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 120d
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $6 123d
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 123d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 123d
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? BUY No 75¢ $3 123d
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 123d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? BUY No 68¢ $4 123d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $4 123d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 123d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 123d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 123d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 124d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 124d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? BUY No 56¢ $3 124d
Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 124d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? BUY No 58¢ $3 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $1 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $3 124d
Mavericks vs. Suns BUY Suns 74¢ $6 130d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 78¢ $4 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.04 · official $36.04 (match) · 536 history records