Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69f0…fb27
weather · 1312 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$24
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 1312
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1122.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? No 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? No 16¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+525%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? No 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? No 65¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 70¢ 39¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 8? No 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? No 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? No 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +526%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +45%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 12 $0 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% +$1
other 7% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $11 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 6m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $8 6m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 48¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $67 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 12¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 28m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
≤30d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
≤90d 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
all 18 +55.5% +40.7% 83% 72% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1122.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.7% 72% +16.2%
10% ← realistic here +27.2% 50% +5.1%
15% +14.9% 33% -5.1%
20% +3.7% 28% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.32 · official $14.55 · 3500 history records