Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f2…5041 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$9
other 23% −$1
politics 5% −$7
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 8% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 8% 0% -10.9%
all 32 -4.0% -13.2% 28% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -11.7%
10% -21.5% 0% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage467d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $121 −$6 -5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $5 $0 -7%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 23 $9 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $46 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $48 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.99 · official $37.99 (match) · 93 history records