Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f4…c6ee crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$313 (-2%) realized −$369 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate75%44W / 15L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day209.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$48
sports 34% −$134
other 26% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -0.0% -9.5% 75% 39% -11.4%
≤30d 59 -0.0% -9.5% 75% 39% -11.4%
≤90d 59 -0.0% -9.5% 75% 39% -11.4%
all 59 -0.0% -9.5% 75% 39% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 39% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 17% -19.8%
15% -26.1% 14% -27.6%
20% -33.3% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$93 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses44 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)59 / 67
History coverage2d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day209.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $350 $374 +$24 (+7%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $75 $112 +$37 (+49%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Over 60¢ 55¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 68¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $208 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $433 +$82 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $792 −$41 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $406 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $368 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $149 −$12 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $900 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $552 −$442 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $562 −$446 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $254 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $130 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$33 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$29 -71%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,756 +$280 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$182 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $273 +$141 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $600 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$55 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $25 −$15 -58%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $25 −$20 -78%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$34 +68%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $367 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 5m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $25 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 34m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 35m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $82 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $136 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $148 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.79 · official $525.79 (match) · 510 history records