Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f6…0cf2 politics 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$7
politics 37% −$5
sports 15% −$4
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.8% 50% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 11 -1.5% -10.9% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 82 -4.2% -13.3% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 73
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage376d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -19%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $164 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $88 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 11 $83 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $248 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $178 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $73 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $75 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $74 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $76 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.43 · official $74.43 (match) · 446 history records