Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
69 0x69f8…1b8c other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$19 (+19%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$15
sports 15% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.5% +23.5% 100% 100% +26.6%
≤30d 2 +36.5% +23.5% 100% 100% +26.6%
≤90d 2 +36.5% +23.5% 100% 100% +26.6%
all 2 +36.5% +23.5% 100% 100% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 100% +26.6%
10% +11.7% 100% +14.4%
15% +0.9% 50% +3.4%
20% -9.0% 0% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$15 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $15 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 6 history records