Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69f8…2b2f sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$133 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$197
other 18% −$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 9% -18.3%
≤30d 22 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 9% -18.3%
≤90d 22 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 9% -18.3%
all 22 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 9% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 9% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 9% -26.1%
15% -27.5% 9% -33.3%
20% -34.6% 9% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$172 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 98¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $303 +$11 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $303 +$7 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $303 +$12 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $604 +$17 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $253 +$15 +6%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 +$232 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $504 +$9 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $202 +$10 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $202 +$8 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $81 +$2 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $203 +$17 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $202 +$12 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $10 +$19 +186%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $91 +$3 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $121 +$3 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $202 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $202 +$8 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $254 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $509 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $51 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.67 · official $556.28 (match) · 225 history records