Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69fa…e259 sports 939 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$410 (-3%) realized −$407 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%534W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day75.3pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$168
14 days+$77
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$148
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +7.8% -2.4% 61% 58% -1.9%
≤30d 768 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 52% -9.1%
≤90d 928 +1.6% -8.0% 58% 54% -8.6%
all 928 +1.6% -8.0% 58% 54% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 54% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 39% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 27% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$407
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses534 / 394
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions11
Markets (closed)928 / 939
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 928 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 39¢ 35¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 57¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 48¢ 42¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 52¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 56¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 68¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 55¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+178%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner 100 Thieves 53¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Gentle Mates 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $25 +$24 +99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $21 +$32 +156%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $18 −$6 -31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $12 +$9 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$4 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $26 +$19 +74%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$6 -30%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$3 +30%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$3 +41%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$5 -61%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$5 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$9 -72%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$25 +111%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$2 +11%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $32 +$15 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $23 +$59 +252%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $12 +$15 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$9 +33%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$6 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $28 +$39 +135%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$11 +128%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $24 +$9 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $3 16m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $2 35m
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $6 38m
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 45¢ $6 41m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 48¢ $1 44m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 49¢ $6 46m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $6 47m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 40¢ $8 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 38¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 77¢ $1 5h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 59¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY G-Time 53¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY G-Time 50¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 81¢ $1 6h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 54¢ $1 6h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 56¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 81¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 33¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 33¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $2 8h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 61¢ $9 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 97¢ $25 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 97¢ $24 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $12 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $12 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $12 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.37 · official $57.37 (match) · 3500 history records