Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x69fe…6f39 other 705 markets active 5h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%691W / 12L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$37
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$41
crypto 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 3% -8.9%
≤30d 703 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 703 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -9.0%
all 703 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses691 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)703 / 705
History coverage21d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 14h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 17h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 20h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 23h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 24h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 26h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 29h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 30h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 1411 history records