Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a03…095b other 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$37
sports 23% −$15
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
politics 6% −$4
economics 5% −$5
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage126d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $175 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $603 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $466 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $119 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $207 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $638 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $456 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $439 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $362 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $783 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 5h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 13h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 14h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 19h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 23h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 25h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 26h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 27h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 43h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1274 history records