Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a08…47af sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,532 (+9%) realized +$3,287 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%59W / 64L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$91
14 days+$984
30 days+$1,858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,806
other 1% −$194
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.4% -20.7% 60% 40% -4.3%
≤30d 32 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 41% +4.1%
≤90d 99 -3.0% -12.3% 47% 38% -1.9%
all 123 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 40% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 40% -1.2%
10% -20.1% 37% -10.7%
15% -27.8% 33% -19.3%
20% -34.9% 27% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$114 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized+$3,287
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses59 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage240d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 100¢ $400 $645 +$245 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $273 +$224 +82%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 −$194 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $761 +$46 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $252 +$115 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $802 +$60 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $61 +$75 +124%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $350 +$529 +151%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $361 −$10 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $237 −$233 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $500 −$498 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $409 +$969 +237%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $572 +$616 +108%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $768 +$383 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $417 +$351 +84%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $654 −$649 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $353 +$301 +85%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $285 −$280 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1,260 +$57 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $20 +$59 +291%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $753 +$446 +59%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $602 +$4 +1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $708 +$93 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $404 +$192 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $508 +$8 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $389 +$119 +31%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $359 +$132 +37%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $51 +$76 +149%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $1,060 +$69 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $81 +$44 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $203 +$171 +84%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $911 +$17 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $646 +$264 +41%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $30 +$25 +81%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $41 +$92 +226%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $31 +$93 +303%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $651 +$211 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $496 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $72 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 81¢ $201 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 18h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $303 33h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $808 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $367 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $761 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $252 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $862 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $136 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $802 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $61 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $879 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $350 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $351 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 77¢ $361 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $237 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 84¢ $500 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $1,378 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $409 13d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $203 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $20 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $10 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $61 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,188 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $65 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.36 · official $645.36 (match) · 272 history records