Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a08…4531 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%60W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$158
14 days−$159
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$245
other 0% −$12
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.0% -17.7% 67% 60% -15.1%
≤30d 49 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 57% -16.2%
≤90d 104 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 51% -15.7%
all 104 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 51% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 51% -15.7%
10% -28.8% 33% -23.8%
15% -35.7% 23% -31.2%
20% -42.0% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage51d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $305 −$76 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $407 +$64 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $205 −$36 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$64 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 22 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 22 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 20 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $51 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $120 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $136 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $236 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $234 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $112 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $106 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $237 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $110 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records