Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a0f…8e1d other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,195 (-1%) realized −$1,195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,227per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$26
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$74
other 38% −$1,148
sports 12% +$28
world 3% −$8
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -1.7% -11.0% 7% 3% -10.7%
all 129 +2.2% -7.6% 19% 16% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 16% -10.2%
10% -16.4% 16% -18.8%
15% -24.5% 13% -26.7%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,829) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$22 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$1,195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,227
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $682 $681 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $278 $279 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $2,841 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 24 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,319 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,391 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,840 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $826 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,065 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $862 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $813 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $859 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $68 +$66 +97%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $840 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $862 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $35 +$30 +86%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 19 $1,372 −$1,372 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,761 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,379 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,073 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $4,173 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3,536 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,067 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,777 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $682 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $684 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $685 5h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $686 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $686 7h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $685 47h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $686 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $686 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $687 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $657 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $658 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $674 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $675 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $689 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $690 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $687 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $688 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $695 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $696 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $279 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $846 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $847 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.59 · official $960.59 (match) · 442 history records