Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a17…d13e weather 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$212 (-1%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%123W / 261L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$413
14 days−$2,014
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$117
sports 15% +$35
weather 11% −$855
other 11% −$234
finance 6% −$226
world 2% −$65
politics 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 21% -16.8%
≤30d 162 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 22% -11.7%
≤90d 343 -6.1% -15.1% 33% 25% -12.1%
all 384 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 24% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 24% -12.6%
10% -24.3% 18% -21.0%
15% -31.6% 14% -28.6%
20% -38.3% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$28 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses123 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage107d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 18 $1,933 +$115 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 18 $329 −$34 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $51 −$17 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 18 $382 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$7 +241%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $33 +$21 +62%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$25 +279%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $352 −$67 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $186 −$82 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 12 $259 −$100 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $199 +$62 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $191 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $828 −$305 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $279 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $454 −$24 -5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 10 $452 −$81 -18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $682 −$67 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $510 −$27 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $745 +$83 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$68 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $92 −$60 -66%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 8? Jun 09 $89 +$12 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $78 +$44 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $62 −$28 -46%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $77 −$33 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 06 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 88°F or higher on May 4? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 3? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 24? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 24? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 4? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 24? Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? Jun 06 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $329 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $329 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $295 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $329 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $390 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $382 30h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 39¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 6¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 60¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1643 history records