Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a18…fe45 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,494 (+19%) realized +$2,297 · open +$197
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%68W / 42L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$272
14 days+$272
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$2,026
politics 22% −$221
world 13% +$862
sports 10% −$11
tech 5% −$181
culture 3% +$40
economics 3% +$13
crypto 3% −$50
finance 1% +$9
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +102.5% +83.3% 33% 33% +55.1%
≤30d 9 +18.1% +6.9% 33% 33% -2.5%
≤90d 18 +12.5% +1.8% 39% 39% +12.4%
all 110 -4.9% -13.9% 62% 28% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 28% +8.6%
10% -22.2% 22% -1.8%
15% -29.7% 16% -11.3%
20% -36.6% 12% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$58 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$1,827
Realized+$2,297
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses68 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)110 / 119
History coverage254d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 66¢ 88¢ $750 $1,001 +$251 (+33%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $300 $238 −$62 (-21%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$41 -40%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $175 −$105 -60%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $102 +$418 +408%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $100 −$43 -43%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $102 −$56 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $50 +$15 +30%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 23 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 23 $50 −$30 -60%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? May 23 $300 −$87 -29%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $52 −$16 -31%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $313 +$172 +55%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 202 May 17 $30 −$18 -61%
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? May 16 $50 −$11 -22%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? May 09 $100 −$57 -57%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $150 +$350 +233%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 08 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? Apr 08 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 28 $250 +$63 +25%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$121 +121%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Feb 07 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Jan 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Jan 23 $125 +$122 +98%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 16 $50 +$19 +39%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $30 −$26 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jan 14 $50 +$5 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $250 +$94 +38%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 14 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 2–6 seconds? Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting? Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026? Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31? Jan 03 $95 −$95 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $200 +$99 +49%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $300 +$277 +92%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1,000 +$1,945 +194%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 30 $110 −$103 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -99%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Dec 30 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 30 $100 +$7 +7%
Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? Dec 30 $20 +$2 +11%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 21 $50 +$83 +165%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 21 $100 +$257 +257%
Will Tim Keller win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? Dec 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Dec 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $61 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $26 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 88¢ $521 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 49¢ $57 22d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 11¢ $46 22d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 84¢ $100 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $150 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 67¢ $65 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 27d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 28d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $20 28d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $99 28d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $36 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 34d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $113 34d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $485 34d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 34d
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 202 SELL Yes 15¢ $12 35d
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $39 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $77 36d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,826.90 · official $1,826.90 (match) · 406 history records