Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a19…89dd crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$14 (-11%) realized −$2 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +19.3% +7.9% 57% 52% -11.6%
≤30d 54 +19.3% +7.9% 57% 52% -11.6%
≤90d 54 +19.3% +7.9% 57% 52% -11.6%
all 54 +19.3% +7.9% 57% 52% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 52% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 46% -20.0%
15% -11.8% 41% -27.8%
20% -20.5% 33% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$10 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 128 history records