Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6A 0x6a1a…d46b sports 367 markets active 12h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$707 (-1%) realized −$705 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%230W / 133L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$138
14 days+$33
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$833
other 12% +$19
crypto 2% −$50
weather 0% −$19
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.0% -0.4% 80% 10% -7.9%
≤30d 70 -14.7% -22.8% 64% 23% -10.8%
≤90d 143 -13.7% -21.9% 68% 24% -9.0%
all 363 -12.1% -20.4% 63% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 32% -10.3%
10% -28.1% 25% -18.9%
15% -35.0% 22% -26.7%
20% -41.4% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$705
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses230 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)363 / 367
History coverage163d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 82¢ 75¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,953 +$10 +0%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $500 −$43 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,938 +$38 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,851 +$73 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,779 +$44 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$248 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,909 +$108 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $211 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +171%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $501 −$317 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $300 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -81%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 06 $600 +$13 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,953 11h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $9 34h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 40¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 91¢ $458 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $500 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $437 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $239 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $111 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 91¢ $10 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 70¢ $754 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.99 · official $37.99 (match) · 717 history records