Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6A 0x6a1b…972d crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-8%) realized −$179 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate70%74W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$140
sports 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -2.7% -11.9% 72% 21% -14.9%
≤30d 98 -2.7% -11.9% 72% 21% -14.9%
≤90d 105 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 22% -17.8%
all 105 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 22% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 22% -17.8%
10% -22.3% 8% -25.7%
15% -29.8% 5% -32.9%
20% -36.7% 4% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses74 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage40d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 34¢ 50¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 83¢ 50¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $58 −$22 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.81 · official $62.81 (match) · 603 history records