Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a26…8acb sports 904 markets active 1h ago coverage 790d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,919 (-2%) realized −$1,919 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%344W / 558L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$264
14 days+$262
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$7,577
other 41% −$9,008
sports 7% −$412
politics 2% −$142
tech 0% +$19
economics 0% −$24
world 0% −$98
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.3% -42.4% 20% 20% +14.2%
≤30d 23 -19.0% -26.8% 35% 17% +5.2%
≤90d 89 -22.8% -30.2% 26% 16% -9.5%
all 902 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 34% -11.8%
10% -19.3% 32% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 29% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 26% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$52 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

790d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses344 / 558
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)902 / 904
History coverage790d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch No 31¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 307 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $277 −$6 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $26 −$6 -23%
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 13 $700 +$282 +40%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 29 $98 −$24 -24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $12 −$6 -53%
Will Valantis launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $14 +$4 +31%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 28 $22 −$9 -42%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $19 +$3 +17%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $5 $0 +7%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? May 25 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? May 25 $46 −$4 -10%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 13 $51 −$7 -13%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 13 $13 −$1 -9%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 13 $5 −$1 -18%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $5 −$1 -14%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 13 $53 −$2 -4%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $149 +$42 +28%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 09 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 09 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 09 $39 +$10 +27%
Call of Duty: Huntsmen vs Project Notorious (BO5) - Call of Duty Chall May 07 $4 +$9 +230%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $54 −$48 -89%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $44 −$13 -29%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 01 $88 −$34 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 31¢ $31 1h
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2d
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch SELL No 47¢ $147 2d
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 36¢ $15 4d
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 31¢ $93 4d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 29¢ $37 4d
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 38¢ $443 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States vs. Australia en BUY $2 6d
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $8 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? SELL Yes $0 6d
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 38¢ $212 7d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $25 19d
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 33¢ $27 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 19d
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.09 · official $30.09 (match) · 3101 history records