Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a28…5640 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1
world 43% +$1
politics 6% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.4% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage453d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $56 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $1 $0 -37%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Jul 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $12 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $27 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $31 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $9 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $24 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $33 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $26 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $35 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 110 history records