Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6A 0x6a29…90ef other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$319 · open +$237

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +121% what you keep after slip

Net edge+121%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$461per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$2,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$102

7 days−$102

14 days−$102

30 days−$102

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)+120.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-8.0%	-16.7%	33%	17%	-11.4%
≤30d	6	-8.0%	-16.7%	33%	17%	-11.4%
≤90d	6	-8.0%	-16.7%	33%	17%	-11.4%
all	15	+144.2%	+120.9%	33%	27%	-17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+120.9%	27%	-17.1%
10%	+99.8%	20%	-25.0%
15%	+80.5%	20%	-32.3%
20%	+62.8%	20%	-38.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +144% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +277% → late +28% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$77 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage

Net worth$2,591

Realized−$319

Unrealized+$237

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage148d

Avg bet$461

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	23¢	$2,354	$2,591	+$237 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$101	+$115	+114%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$217	−$116	-54%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$201	+$16	+8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$31	−$5	-15%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Jun 28	$137	−$111	-81%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Jun 28	$22	$0	-1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Mar 25	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	Mar 25	$11	+$40	+374%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Feb 28	$1,233	−$323	-26%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?	Feb 18	$960	+$147	+15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?	Feb 12	$577	−$4	-1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Feb 05	$211	−$22	-10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	Feb 02	$337	−$126	-37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Feb 02	$352	−$14	-4%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	Feb 01	$240	+$112	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$215	57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$216	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$101	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	SELL Japan	26¢	$101	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	54¢	$217	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$217	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$27	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	17¢	$26	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$175	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	23¢	$23	4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	23¢	$183	4h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	10¢	$22	30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	65¢	$22	30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	64¢	$22	30h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	6¢	$22	30h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	28¢	$115	31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	23¢	$78	31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	23¢	$23	31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2,488	2d
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	BUY Yes	28¢	$50	96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	SELL No	85¢	$50	96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	BUY No	18¢	$11	113d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY Yes	43¢	$219	125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL No	57¢	$219	125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY No	80¢	$308	129d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL Yes	20¢	$308	129d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY Yes	27¢	$413	131d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?	SELL No	85¢	$413	131d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,591.04 · official $2,590.88 (match) · 53 history records