Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a2d…9375 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$682 (-31%) realized −$580 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$41
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$86
world 28% −$312
politics 20% −$337
other 8% −$104
finance 1% −$29
sports 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 37 +11.3% +0.7% 49% 46% -2.1%
≤90d 95 -9.4% -18.0% 31% 29% -38.6%
all 95 -9.4% -18.0% 31% 29% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 29% -38.6%
10% -25.8% 26% -44.4%
15% -33.0% 22% -49.8%
20% -39.6% 18% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$580
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)95 / 102
History coverage68d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $75 $20 −$54 (-73%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $47 $12 −$36 (-76%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 8¢ $10 $2 −$9 (-85%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $17 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $18 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$42 +394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$40 +370%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -83%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 01 $38 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +43%
NATO dissolves before 2027? May 31 $7 +$1 +22%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$10 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 26 $16 −$10 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 26 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 26 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 +$15 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $33 +$75 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $11 +$23 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 15 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $6 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Kurds declare independence from Iran? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $10 9h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 9h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 8d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $47.69 (match) · 449 history records