Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a2f…3d3c
other · 90 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$259 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$259 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$5
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses78 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage248d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 1 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 59¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5? No 99¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 73¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? No 99¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Nothing Ever Happens: November No 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? May 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $78 +$13 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $106 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day Apr 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 81 million views on day 6 Mar 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$262
world 8% −$3
economics 8% +$4
tech 5% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% −$4
culture 2% +$4
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? BUY Yes $3 15d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3 19d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 BUY No 99¢ $90 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 BUY No 100¢ $86 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $85 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 29d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 29d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $91 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 39% -32.6%
≤90d 53 -8.1% -16.8% 87% 23% -23.8%
all 89 -8.7% -17.4% 88% 13% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 13% -15.5%
10% -25.3% 2% -23.6%
15% -32.5% 1% -31.0%
20% -39.1% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 168 history records