Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a32…96db crypto 357 markets active 8h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-11%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%236W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$27
other 24% −$10
sports 14% −$12
politics 5% +$4
weather 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$6
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.4% -16.3% 71% 43% -16.2%
≤30d 51 -0.0% -9.6% 69% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 176 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 36% -13.6%
all 353 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 31% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 31% -20.6%
10% -27.6% 18% -28.2%
15% -34.6% 12% -35.2%
20% -41.0% 6% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses236 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)353 / 357
History coverage197d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $1 $0 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 29 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1 +$1 +105%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia- May 20 $1 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 80¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 74¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 8d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL XLG Gaming 71¢ $1 8d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 72¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 78¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 56¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 66¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 73¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 46¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 775 history records