Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a32…12af sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$286 (-11%) realized −$286 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$37
14 days−$61
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$260
politics 10% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.8% +3.8% 33% 33% -5.9%
≤30d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 29% -19.2%
≤90d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 29% -19.2%
all 16 -4.3% -13.4% 31% 31% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 31% -18.1%
10% -21.7% 31% -25.9%
15% -29.3% 25% -33.1%
20% -36.2% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$71 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage226d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $146 +$78 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $267 −$8 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $507 −$33 -7%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $100 −$19 -19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $149 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $105 −$104 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $185 −$182 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $100 +$209 +209%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $223 +$91 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 01 $188 −$86 -46%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Exort Series Mai Jun 01 $226 −$33 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $75 +$140 +188%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more? Nov 04 $42 +$13 +31%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Nov 04 $230 −$8 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 80¢ $224 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $146 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $174 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 51¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $267 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $143 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $21 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $2 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 23¢ $99 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $231 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $231 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $243 4d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 37¢ $81 12d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 33¢ $81 12d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $100 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 46¢ $149 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $105 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 51¢ $185 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Lynn Vision 100¢ $308 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Lynn Vision 32¢ $100 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Liquid 100¢ $216 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 59¢ $20 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 55¢ $101 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 55¢ $98 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 55¢ $101 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 39¢ $89 16d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL Donstu Esports 18¢ $28 17d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL Donstu Esports 16¢ $74 17d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY Donstu Esports 29¢ $188 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records