Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a33…710f sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$573 (+121%) realized +$155 · open −$242
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$155
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$242
sports 48% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +68.4% +52.3% 67% 67% +52.3%
≤30d 3 +68.4% +52.3% 67% 67% +52.3%
≤90d 3 +68.4% +52.3% 67% 67% +52.3%
all 3 +68.4% +52.3% 67% 67% +52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.3% 67% +52.3%
10% +37.8% 67% +37.7%
15% +24.4% 67% +24.4%
20% +12.2% 67% +12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$90 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$242
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $242 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $97 +$209 +216%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$36 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $178 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $306 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $97 21h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $91 30h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $77 45h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 9 history records