Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a34…b2a5 sports 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%174W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$22
14 days−$27
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$132
sports 23% +$93
politics 16% −$29
economics 13% −$10
world 6% −$8
tech 3% −$12
weather 2% −$16
crypto 2% −$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.2% -20.6% 13% 13% -14.6%
≤30d 72 -15.2% -23.3% 18% 14% -11.9%
≤90d 169 -9.9% -18.5% 31% 26% -11.1%
all 428 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 35% -10.6%
10% -24.8% 30% -19.2%
15% -32.1% 26% -27.0%
20% -38.7% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses174 / 254
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 429
History coverage165d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $88 −$5 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $12 −$4 -30%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -62%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $23 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +36%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +70%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $140 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $100 −$2 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $339 −$2 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $24 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $2 −$1 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $810 −$6 -1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $2 +$2 +76%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $96 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL No $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No $3 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $83 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $88 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 21h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 21h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes $1 21h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl SELL No $1 23h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY No $1 23h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL Yes $4 24h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? SELL No $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY No $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY No $0 25h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 92¢ $46 27h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 92¢ $46 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1101 history records