Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a34…47e9 politics 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,500 (+2%) realized +$2,063 · open +$1,437
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate65%60W / 32L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$17,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$238
14 days−$97
30 days+$1,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$1,624
other 34% +$1,748
tech 6% +$49
world 4% −$1,130
economics 2% +$584
finance 2% +$235
crypto 2% −$1,252
sports 1% +$17
culture 0% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.6% +36.3% 100% 100% +36.3%
≤30d 5 +6.7% -3.5% 60% 40% +5.7%
≤90d 13 +8.8% -1.5% 77% 62% +6.4%
all 92 -8.5% -17.2% 65% 30% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 30% -9.1%
10% -25.1% 13% -17.8%
15% -32.4% 8% -25.8%
20% -39.0% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$2,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$381 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$17,010
Realized+$2,063
Unrealized+$1,437
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses60 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions18
Markets (closed)92 / 110
History coverage531d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another Canada election called by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $4,844 $5,717 +$874 (+18%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,760 $2,835 +$75 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $2,650 $2,828 +$178 (+7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $2,184 $2,353 +$169 (+8%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $684 $1,131 +$446 (+65%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $647 $710 +$63 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ $1,008 $546 −$462 (-46%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 52¢ 63¢ $254 $310 +$56 (+22%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $143 $149 +$6 (+4%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 97¢ 97¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $109 $114 +$5 (+4%)
Canada's population Up or Down this year? Down 54¢ 76¢ $37 $52 +$15 (+40%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+20%)
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? No 86¢ 90¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $470 +$238 +51%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 08 $335 −$335 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $1,743 +$1,494 +86%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 26 $2,970 −$295 -10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $1,766 +$123 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $968 +$658 +68%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $202 +$25 +12%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 Apr 16 $677 +$217 +32%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $559 +$227 +41%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Apr 06 $4,130 +$258 +6%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $900 +$100 +11%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $18 +$2 +11%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $375 +$125 +33%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Win Feb 18 $161 +$14 +9%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Win Feb 18 $930 +$69 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $791 −$469 -59%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 10 $1,265 −$765 -60%
Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times Jan 03 $40 +$3 +7%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? Jan 01 $56 +$4 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jan 01 $976 +$146 +15%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Jan 01 $1,326 +$234 +18%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $1,746 +$238 +14%
Another Canada election called in 2025? Jan 01 $4,102 +$695 +17%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jan 01 $5,915 +$1,173 +20%
Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025? Dec 15 $934 +$80 +9%
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X? Dec 03 $219 +$15 +7%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 29 $1,800 +$182 +10%
Liberal party signs coalition agreement before August? Aug 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August? Aug 04 $742 −$742 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting? Jul 30 $630 +$120 +19%
Will Tesla name a new CEO before July? Jun 27 $1,940 +$44 +2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jun 18 $1,685 −$935 -56%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 16 $1,870 +$98 +5%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June? Jun 01 $480 +$20 +4%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? May 28 $2,500 +$235 +9%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 24 $145 −$117 -80%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025? May 22 $1,540 +$160 +10%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 17 $6,039 +$380 +6%
US-China trade deal in 2025? May 12 $2,275 +$225 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 12 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $100 +$256 +256%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump meets with Carney before June? May 06 $4,825 +$466 +10%
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives by Friday? May 03 $817 +$82 +10%
Will Ontario cut off electricity to the US before May? May 01 $2,200 +$20 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $2,524 +$937 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $5 20m
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $5 33m
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $5 51m
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $109 1h
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $35 1h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 15¢ $42 1h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $14 6d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 52¢ $4 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $58 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $28 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? BUY No 86¢ $12 7d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $9 7d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $76 7d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 9d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 10d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 10d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 10d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 10d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $26 10d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 52¢ $167 10d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 16¢ $12 10d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 16¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,010.14 · official $16,995.31 (match) · 1418 history records