Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6A 0x6a36…2483 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$70 (+6%) realized +$77 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$121per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$124

30 days+$124

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+70.3%	+54.1%	100%	100%	+54.1%
≤90d	1	+70.3%	+54.1%	100%	100%	+54.1%
all	7	+25.9%	+13.9%	86%	71%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	71%	-1.7%
10%	+3.0%	57%	-11.1%
15%	-7.0%	43%	-19.7%
20%	-16.1%	43%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +70% too few recent

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$244 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage

Net worth$288

Realized+$77

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage106d

Avg bet$121

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$200	$195	−$5 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Brazil	30¢	30¢	$95	$93	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$177	+$124	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Mar 19	$244	−$244	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Mar 19	$102	+$102	+100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$91	+$52	+57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 18	$68	+$23	+33%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A	Mar 16	$57	+$11	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Mar 15	$50	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	30¢	$97	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$205	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$177	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$20	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$16	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$9	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$8	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$28	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$17	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$28	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$28	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$7	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$16	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$23	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$6	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	102d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.92 · official $287.92 (match) · 44 history records