Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a39…cf39
weather · 457 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$185 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$215 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$353
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses106 / 309
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions42
Markets (closed)415 / 457
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 42 History 415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$34
14 days−$79
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $27 $37 +$11 (+40%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $36 +$9 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 98¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+109%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+365%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +116%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +232%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +147%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +131%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +142%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 +$36 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$9 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$4 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 51% −$26
other 28% −$119
sports 15% −$45
crypto 3% +$9
politics 1% −$7
finance 1% $0
world 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 10h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -17.1% -25.0% 29% 29% -17.2%
≤30d 415 -20.4% -27.9% 26% 25% -24.7%
≤90d 415 -20.4% -27.9% 26% 25% -24.7%
all 415 -20.4% -27.9% 26% 25% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 25% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 25% -31.9%
15% -41.1% 25% -38.5%
20% -46.9% 24% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.80 · official $354.26 (match) · 778 history records