Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a3c…a9a8 other 434 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$277 (+1%) realized +$294 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%147W / 286L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$458
14 days−$250
30 days+$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$204
sports 29% −$171
crypto 1% +$173
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 47% -17.3%
≤30d 56 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 45% -5.8%
≤90d 121 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 42% -6.2%
all 433 -9.1% -17.8% 34% 31% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 31% -10.6%
10% -25.6% 28% -19.2%
15% -32.8% 26% -27.0%
20% -39.4% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$294
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses147 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)433 / 434
History coverage393d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $195 $178 −$17 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $223 −$221 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $184 +$41 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$27 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $284 +$173 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 −$277 -92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $211 +$117 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 −$197 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $800 −$780 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $401 +$540 +135%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $486 −$479 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $500 −$13 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 +$89 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $300 +$531 +177%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $320 −$316 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $472 +$349 +74%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $135 +$336 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 −$366 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $411 −$155 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $490 −$79 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $936 −$895 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$26 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $577 +$446 +77%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $394 +$582 +148%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $333 +$370 +111%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $526 +$112 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $202 −$160 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $163 +$46 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $400 −$393 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $282 +$154 +55%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $202 −$18 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $435 +$162 +37%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $630 +$438 +70%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $99 −$8 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $792 +$168 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $271 +$186 +69%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $222 +$157 +71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $14 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $38 +$34 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $195 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $220 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $225 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $83 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $457 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $96 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $300 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $328 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $211 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.80 · official $177.80 (match) · 1205 history records