Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a41…e8d5 sports 527 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$371 (+11%) realized +$394 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%292W / 234L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$331
other 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.7% -0.8% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤30d 14 +9.7% -0.8% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤90d 268 +12.4% +1.7% 58% 58% +1.9%
all 526 +8.3% -2.1% 56% 56% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 56% +0.3%
10% -11.4% 55% -9.3%
15% -20.0% 54% -18.0%
20% -27.8% 54% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$394
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses292 / 234
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)526 / 527
History coverage132d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 33¢ 24¢ $80 $57 −$23 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 +$97 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$118 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$145 +146%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 +$44 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$66 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $4 +$3 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 09 $3 +$4 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $7 +$7 +105%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $7 +$7 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $3 +$4 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $3 +$4 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $4 +$3 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $4 +$3 +97%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 02 $4 +$3 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 28 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 28 $4 +$3 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Apr 27 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 27 $4 +$4 +86%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 27 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Apr 26 $3 +$4 +105%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Apr 26 $3 +$4 +109%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 26 $4 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $82 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $112 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $86 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $71 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $71 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $100 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $72 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $72 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $74 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 96¢ $106 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $106 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 33¢ $61 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $6 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 84¢ $4 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $1 6d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 48¢ $3 34d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $3 37d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Pistons 50¢ $4 37d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $3 38d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $4 38d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Pistons 49¢ $3 39d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Thunder 53¢ $3 39d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $3 40d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $4 40d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 51¢ $4 41d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Thunder 48¢ $3 41d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 51¢ $4 41d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Thunder 48¢ $3 41d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $3 42d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $3 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.10 · official $57.10 (match) · 1079 history records