Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6a48…7d3b world 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+0%) realized +$96 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%125W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$113
sports 23% +$39
other 15% +$8
tech 10% +$5
politics 8% +$60
culture 5% +$2
finance 5% +$1
economics 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 3% -9.6%
≤30d 132 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 132 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 3% -9.6%
all 132 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 3% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$52 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,232
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses125 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)132 / 136
History coverage7d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $490 $500 +$10 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 98¢ $239 $246 +$7 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 94¢ 95¢ $234 $237 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $242 −$23 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $488 −$134 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $224 −$179 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Alabama win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $235 +$15 +6%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $240 +$10 +4%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $245 +$5 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $246 +$4 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $245 +$5 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $465 +$33 +7%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $644 +$6 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $215 +$35 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $220 +$30 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $220 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $354 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $46 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $500 29h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $246 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $244 2d
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 2d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 96¢ $239 2d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $234 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $244 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $244 2d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 100¢ $250 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $231 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 2d
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $224 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $242 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $94 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 100¢ $81 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $231 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.38 · official $1,232.38 (match) · 330 history records