Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a49…59e0
weather · 1344 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$590 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$573 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$420
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses532 / 370
Open positions266
Markets (closed)902 / 1344
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day463.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 266 History 902 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$570
14 days+$573
30 days+$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 69¢ 66¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 84¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+422%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? No 70¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 76¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? No 70¢ 82¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+161%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 85¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 85¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 75¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 84¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 83¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 84¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 74¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? No 67¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? No 85¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 64¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+330%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Jun 12 $0 $0 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 11? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +4056%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 4? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +474%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -160%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1259%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 27? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 27? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$731
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 888 +66.5% +50.6% 59% 55% +17.2%
≤30d 902 +65.7% +49.9% 59% 55% +17.0%
≤90d 902 +65.7% +49.9% 59% 55% +17.0%
all 902 +65.7% +49.9% 59% 55% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover463.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.9% 55% +17.0%
10% ← realistic here +35.6% 42% +5.8%
15% +22.5% 33% -4.4%
20% +10.5% 27% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.06 · official $419.85 (match) · 3500 history records