Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a49…d276 sports 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (350 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized +$358 · open −$405
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%63W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day349.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$246
other 24% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (350 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 39% -6.1%
≤30d 140 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 39% -6.1%
≤90d 140 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 39% -6.1%
all 140 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 39% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover349.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 39% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 31% -15.1%
15% -33.6% 27% -23.3%
20% -40.1% 21% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,621
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses63 / 77
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions20
Markets (closed)140 / 160
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day349.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $500 $224 −$276 (-55%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 48¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 48¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 40¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 61¢ 56¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 42¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 99¢ 74¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Sweden 80¢ 98¢ $42 $52 +$10 (+23%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 51¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Japan leading at halftime? No 73¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 71¢ 79¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Under 96¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $282 +$373 +132%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 +$214 +105%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $27 +$19 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $2 −$1 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $23 −$16 -72%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $128 −$127 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $45 −$45 -99%
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 25 $96 +$104 +108%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $108 −$102 -94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -5%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $480 −$47 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $164 −$156 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +79%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $68 +$5 +8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 +$2 +124%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $62 +$75 +121%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $13 +$3 +24%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 +$126 +124%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $72 +$8 +11%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $0 $0 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $191 +$184 +96%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $50 −$35 -70%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $4 +$2 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $58 −$56 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 +$4 +29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +172%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 +$221 +216%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $19 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $11 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $40 +$62 +155%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 +$20 +307%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $8 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $2 +$1 +31%
ITF Rome: Jaeda Daniel vs Jo-Yee Chan Jun 24 $2 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 73¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 80¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 80¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 80¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 80¢ $9 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 80¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $2 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 17¢ $50 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 17¢ $4 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 27¢ $19 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $82 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $5 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 14¢ $67 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 14¢ $3 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 14¢ $22 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 77¢ $11 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 26¢ $4 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $78 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 82¢ $5 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 82¢ $11 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 54¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,621.00 · official $1,621.01 (match) · 940 history records