Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a49…4985 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%62W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days−$15
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$20
sports 50% +$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.0% -32.2% 67% 33% +7.4%
≤30d 111 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 47% -9.3%
≤90d 111 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 47% -9.3%
all 111 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 47% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 47% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 36% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 28% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses62 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 89¢ 90¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Infinite 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $171 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$8 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 89¢ $123 5m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 42¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 96¢ $134 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 87¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 81¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.05 · official $123.05 (match) · 302 history records