Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a4a…eeda politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$14
sports 23% −$25
other 21% −$19
crypto 11% −$11
world 8% −$1
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage101d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 19 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $147 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $235 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $311 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $63 −$5 -8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $217 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $60 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $60 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 13h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $54 13h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 17h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $50 18h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $50 25h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 30h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $54 30h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $55 35h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $64 36h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $64 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 43h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $58 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $13 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.37 · official $45.37 (match) · 507 history records