Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a4a…4f4d crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (412 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$38 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day411.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$95
other 1% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (412 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 55% 36% -12.7%
≤30d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 55% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 55% 36% -12.7%
all 84 -24.0% -31.3% 55% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover411.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 36% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.9% 6% -21.0%
15% -43.9% 2% -28.7%
20% -49.4% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day411.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 47¢ 62¢ $45 $58 +$14 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 47¢ 38¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $86 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $115 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $187 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $155 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $42 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $40 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $36 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $36 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $23 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.98 · official $94.98 (match) · 478 history records