Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a4c…02da other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-26%) realized −$408 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$416
other 35% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -36.8% -42.8% 50% 50% -46.0%
all 2 -36.8% -42.8% 50% 50% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 50% -46.0%
10% -48.3% 0% -51.2%
15% -53.3% 0% -55.9%
20% -57.8% 0% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$499 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$408
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage65d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $258 $256 −$3 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 15 $482 +$83 +17%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $550 −$499 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.82 · official $549.84 (match) · 12 history records