Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6a4f…2346 other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,293 (+11%) realized +$1,170 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%89W / 46L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$954
world 7% +$252
sports 4% −$95
politics 4% +$123
finance 1% +$38
crypto 0% −$10
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -74.7% -77.1% 0% 0% -84.7%
≤90d 41 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 54% -4.3%
all 135 +18.0% +6.7% 66% 61% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 61% +0.4%
10% -3.5% 53% -9.2%
15% -12.8% 46% -18.0%
20% -21.4% 35% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$66 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$936
Realized+$1,170
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses89 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)135 / 146
History coverage248d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $200 $247 +$47 (+24%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 99¢ $50 $138 +$88 (+175%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 43¢ 62¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $70 $52 −$18 (-26%)
Will QFEX launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 37¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 03 $50 −$25 -49%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $50 +$18 +37%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $50 +$28 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $50 +$7 +13%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 05 $100 +$3 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $100 +$7 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 05 $200 +$6 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $100 −$32 -32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $50 +$20 +40%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $200 +$119 +60%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $50 +$154 +307%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$83 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $50 +$16 +32%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $50 +$79 +158%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $100 +$36 +36%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $30 +$24 +79%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $85 −$84 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $40 +$54 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 +$83 +83%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $10 +$19 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5? Apr 06 $5 +$8 +169%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Algeria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $50 +$18 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $59 +$64 +108%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $100 +$18 +18%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $60 +$111 +186%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $100 +$104 +104%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $50 +$32 +64%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 24d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $53 24d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 47¢ $104 24d
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 28d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 59¢ $68 58d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 60d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 60d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 62d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $100 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $200 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $200 66d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 69d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 69d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 69d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 73¢ $50 69d
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $150 72d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 72d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 74d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 74d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 74d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 78d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 78d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 78d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $935.77 · official $935.78 (match) · 250 history records