Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6a51…006e crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,342 (+13%) realized +$2,972 · open +$370
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days+$40
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 62% +$3,726
crypto 34% −$577
other 2% −$172
sports 1% +$175
world 1% −$7
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤30d 33 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 36% -14.0%
≤90d 81 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 33% +5.2%
all 81 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 33% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 33% +5.2%
10% -33.2% 23% -4.8%
15% -39.7% 20% -14.0%
20% -45.6% 14% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$48 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$8,742
Realized+$2,972
Unrealized+$370
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)81 / 94
History coverage92d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 90¢ 90¢ $3,485 $3,497 +$11 (+0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 90¢ 99¢ $2,246 $2,469 +$223 (+10%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,727 $1,726 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 90¢ 99¢ $520 $575 +$56 (+11%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 14¢ 30¢ $64 $138 +$74 (+115%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $101 $117 +$16 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $83 −$18 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+76%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 89¢ 95¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $386 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $104 −$64 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 31 $597 −$49 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $108 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $118 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 31 $190 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $222 +$96 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $538 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $78 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 31 $272 +$65 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $230 −$64 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $41 +$38 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $156 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $93 +$33 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $156 −$46 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $102 −$68 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $176 −$170 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $178 +$92 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 31 $110 −$104 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $221 −$217 -98%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 02 $3,623 +$2,753 +76%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 02 $3,219 +$656 +20%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 30 $100 −$4 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 30 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 30 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 30 $200 +$129 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 30 $200 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 30 $100 +$257 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $148 2h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 90¢ $343 2h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 88¢ $417 2h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $35 11h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $137 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 99¢ $332 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 92¢ $112 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 92¢ $564 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 91¢ $405 19h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 91¢ $1,095 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 90¢ $441 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $267 24h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $32 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $117 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $216 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $160 24h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $15 35h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $9 35h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 99¢ $74 35h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 99¢ $20 35h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 100¢ $398 35h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 80¢ $121 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $41 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $16 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,741.73 · official $8,741.73 (match) · 517 history records