Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a52…0c6f sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-4%) realized −$244 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days+$31
14 days+$161
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$236
other 9% +$65
crypto 8% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 48% -6.8%
≤30d 74 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 49% -3.6%
≤90d 74 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 49% -3.6%
all 74 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 49% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 49% -3.6%
10% -9.7% 49% -12.8%
15% -18.4% 47% -21.2%
20% -26.4% 46% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$30 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 38
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 89
History coverage11d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $50 $103 +$53 (+105%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 100¢ $40 $82 +$42 (+104%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 39¢ 80¢ $32 $66 +$34 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $23 +$30 +133%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 +$54 +114%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$21 +106%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$28 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$44 +145%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$28 +136%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$56 +138%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$30 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 −$12 -30%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $151 +$40 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$26 +102%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $36 +$41 +114%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $114 +$68 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $94 +$126 +134%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $35 +$26 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$32 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 +$68 +445%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$60 +118%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 43h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $11 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 47¢ $39 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 46¢ $47 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 19¢ $20 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 30¢ $35 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY 48¢ $20 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 44¢ $48 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $40 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 34¢ $51 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 39¢ $33 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $25 5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 15¢ $38 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $51 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $59 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY 41¢ $41 6d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $46 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $49 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.44 · official $250.44 (match) · 143 history records