Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a52…c585 other 66 markets active 2d ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-9%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$7
other 31% +$6
sports 25% +$13
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +99.8% +80.8% 21% 21% +19.9%
≤30d 31 +99.1% +80.1% 26% 26% +18.5%
≤90d 56 +43.2% +29.6% 38% 27% -1.9%
all 56 +43.2% +29.6% 38% 27% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.6% 27% -1.9%
10% +17.2% 20% -11.3%
15% +5.8% 18% -19.8%
20% -4.5% 18% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 66
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +959%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -27%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +649%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $1 +$22 +2161%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco en BUY 17¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 3¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? AND Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 BUY 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR BUY 2¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? AND Exact Score: England 1 - 1 BUY 2¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records