Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a56…be30 weather 1016 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$497 (-5%) realized −$504 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%548W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day98.1pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$92
14 days−$230
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$285
sports 25% −$80
other 3% +$13
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 37% -12.5%
≤30d 965 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 39% -12.9%
≤90d 1010 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 39% -12.6%
all 1010 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 39% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 28% -21.0%
15% -29.1% 20% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$504
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses548 / 462
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1010 / 1016
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day98.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1010 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? No 62¢ 69¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $9 $15 +$5 (+60%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+254%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$10 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $21 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$6 -44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$8 -47%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$7 +60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$8 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$8 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $2 +$3 +132%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$20 +626%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -86%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +139%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +92%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$5 +379%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 20¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 40¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 67¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 94¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 86¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 84¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $11 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $7 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 88¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 93¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.60 · official $60.01 · 3500 history records