Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a56…c210 other 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%105W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$6
14 days+$39
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$13
weather 32% −$38
other 29% +$61
sports 1% −$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 48 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 54% +1.8%
≤90d 115 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 51% +0.9%
all 175 -2.9% -12.2% 60% 46% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 46% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 35% -17.9%
15% -28.2% 31% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses105 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 178
History coverage179d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$19 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 +$17 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $2 +$2 +118%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +146%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -87%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw? May 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 20m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 26¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 7d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8d
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 8d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 9d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 9d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 9d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 9d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 9d
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 9d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.87 · official $3.88 (match) · 385 history records