Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a57…4942 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-11%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$77
crypto 28% +$6
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 23% -16.6%
≤30d 47 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 23% -16.6%
≤90d 47 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 23% -16.6%
all 47 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 23% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 23% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 9% -24.5%
15% -35.0% 6% -31.8%
20% -41.4% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$27 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$10 -22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 +$4 +13%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: VENOM ESPOR vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pla Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$9 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $20 −$13 -63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $20 −$12 -59%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $21 +$2 +8%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 54¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 85¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 47¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 64¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 80¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 76¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 55¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records