Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a57…b666 politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$574per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4
sports 17% $0
world 15% −$1
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage66d
Avg bet$574
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,289 $0 -0%
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $1,364 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $53 47m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,258 54m
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,316 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,283 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $938 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $254 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 3h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 3h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 17h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,289 19h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 19h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,250 19h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 19h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 20h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 20h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $960 20h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 20h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $257 20h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 21h
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $73 61d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 61d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $61 61d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $11 61d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records