Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a59…e31a world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% $0
other 24% +$4
sports 11% +$15
crypto 10% +$6
politics 8% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 +55.7% +40.9% 14% 14% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +55.7% +40.9% 14% 14% -9.6%
all 44 +21.3% +9.8% 41% 11% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 11% -7.4%
10% -0.7% 9% -16.3%
15% -10.3% 9% -24.4%
20% -19.1% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.63 per $1 lost it wins $4.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage472d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 +$1 +37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 07 $8 $0 -3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times April 4 - 11? Apr 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $36 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $2 +$3 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $32 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? Mar 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 12 $30 $0 +1%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 06 $15 +$15 +104%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? Mar 04 $3 $0 +0%
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Mar 04 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $16 $0 -1%
New Hampshire vs. Bryant Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $40 23m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $40 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $7 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $20 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $37 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records