Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a5b…16ba other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,485 (-17%) realized −$1,172 · open −$313
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$250
14 days+$250
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$717
sports 13% −$1,082
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.4% +47.9% 67% 67% +50.6%
≤30d 3 +63.4% +47.9% 67% 67% +50.6%
≤90d 3 +63.4% +47.9% 67% 67% +50.6%
all 9 +11.8% +1.2% 56% 56% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 56% -25.5%
10% -8.5% 56% -32.6%
15% -17.3% 56% -39.1%
20% -25.4% 33% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$406 vs −$879 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$1,172
Unrealized−$313
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage178d
Avg bet$881
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 10¢ $392 $79 −$313 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $248 +$231 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$98 +197%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 24 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $2,010 −$748 -37%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $1,110 +$840 +76%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $2,200 +$849 +39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $29 +$11 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $398 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $80 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $248 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 5d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,581 157d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $417 157d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $690 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,262 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $190 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $817 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $741 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $86 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $112 175d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 175d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $1,303 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $55 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $537 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $669 176d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $441 176d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $3,049 178d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,200 178d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? SELL Yes 78¢ $41 178d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 178d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.20 · official $79.20 (match) · 31 history records