Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a5c…d0ca sports 50 markets active 14h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$15
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$43
other 25% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +17.9% +6.6% 37% 37% -6.7%
≤30d 50 +11.2% +0.6% 36% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 50 +11.2% +0.6% 36% 36% -10.6%
all 50 +11.2% +0.6% 36% 36% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 36% -10.6%
10% -9.0% 34% -19.2%
15% -17.8% 28% -27.0%
20% -25.9% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$9 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$17 +206%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 $0 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 +$6 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$19 +49%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $8 +$24 +324%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$57 +1835%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -74%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$2 -52%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$19 -53%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$7 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $8 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 44h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $5 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $26 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $9 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $14 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $14 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $13 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records